This article is in continuation with earlier article Predictions For 2014 General Elections – Part 1. Kindly refer the article for details on seat projections of various parties in all states.
According to our analysis, the Congress led UPA government will get 150 seats. As of now, its chances of getting new allies are slim. Even impending TRS merger is not looking sure.
In contrast, BJP led NDA looks to get 223 seats. We have included MNS and JD(S) as new allies for NDA. We have assumed that BS Yeddyurappa would return back to BJP. We have also assumed that Narendra Modi will fight elections from U.P. and Ram Temple issue will not be raised by BJP, but only by VHP and its affiliate organizations.
Further, we have assumed that there will be no regional parties grouping to form Third Front. Therefore, voters will not have any possible alternative for government apart from UPA and NDA.
Now let us look at each major state separately.
Jaganmohan Reddy’s sympathy factor will reduce substantially by 2014 elections. Congress will be able to reap dividends from Telangana decision in the region; however it will lose votes in Rayalseema and Andhra region. TRS will lose its many leaders to Congress and BJP will gain from division in votes.
Anti-incumbency factor will hurt JD(U) the most. We do not expect, it to join hands with Congress, since Congress will not be able to deliver special status for Bihar. This will help RJD the most and to a certain extent BJP.
Nothing much will change in the tribal state. BJP will continue to dominate there. Congress will suffer for not having any local leader in the state.
The anger of the city-state over the law and order situation, discontent over huge power and water bills and high onion prices will lead to a change in equations completely. Congress will lose six of the seven seats it now holds. December state elections will see total collapse of Aam Aadmi Party.
Modi-for-PM wave will sweep Gujarat in BJP’s favor. Congress will also suffer for not having any state leader.
Despite conviction of INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala in a corruption case, the party will gain vote share and will spoil game for Congress in many seats. End result will be gain for NDA.
One of the few states where Congress will gain seats. Congress will gain for having alliance with JMM. It is very much likely that BJP will bring JVM in NDA folder before elections, otherwise it will lose substantially in the state.
Kannadigas are going to have a tough battle in next elections. Although they chose Congress earlier this year, but by 2014, the scene will change a lot. We expect JD(S) will join NDA and BS Yeddyurappa led KJP will either merge with BJP or join NDA, most probably it will merge. Therefore, Congress will not be able to gain as much as it might have expected.
The southern state, which recently voted in a Congress government, will throw a completely different result next year. Local corruption cases and scandals will play big role in the general elections.
Spillover of Modi effect will be clearly visible in the central state. In addition, with expected win in the December state elections, the chances of BJP will further boost. This time, BJP’s spoilers like Uma Bharti and BSP will not be factors.
Congress’ uneasy relationship with NCP, the drought and the irrigation scam are likely to lower the UPA tally in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. We expect MNS will join the NDA banner. Although Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi is also expected to join NDA, but we have not counted that in this analysis.
Pyarimohan Mohapatra exit from BJD will have limited effect only in certain tribal areas of the state. Still BJD would lose vote share and a couple of seats.
It is going to be other state to see spillover Modi effect. Combined with misrule of Ashok Gahlot’s government, the state would completely reverse its mandate. Same is expected to be seen in December state elections.
Congress is unlikely to get any alliance partner in the state. DMK is likely to suffer from the on-going family battle, where MK Stalin and MK Alagiri are fighting for the party’s top post. Big beneficiary will be Jayalalitha’s AIADMK.
Rahul Gandhi will not be able to repeat his 2009 magic. BJP will field Narendra Modi from the state. We believe the party will play Ram Temple card midly, so not to have spillover effect outside the state. In result, big chunk of Congress’ 2009 voters will switch to BJP. Mayawati’s BSP will see further slide in popularity. It is highly likely that few of its leaders will switch party just before elections.
If 2011 was the year, when people punished Left Front for its misrule, 2014 is going to be the year of TMC’s punishment. However Left Front will not be able to gain, since most of its supporters have switched sides. We believe Congress will gain in planes, while in hills, BJP will make inroads, piggybacking on Gorkha movement. Few TMC leaders are also expected to leave the party. However, if Mamta is able to turn Gorkha movement into the state prestige issue, then seat projections will change drastically.